Methodology
The forecasts on this site come from a margin-of-victory-adjusted Elo rating. Six more models sit beside it, each with a model card that states what it does, the data it used and how it did.
The models
The model cards are on GitHub.
M1Team model
Rates every team's offence, defence and pace from box-score possessions, and forecasts each game's winner, margin and total.
Tracked alongside the published forecast.
M2Shot quality
Gives every EuroLeague shot a chance of going in from where and when it was taken, never from who took it.
Behind the shot maps and shot-making ratings.
M3Player impact
Rates players by how the score moves while they are on the floor (RAPM with a box-score prior).
Feeds the roster-aware game model.
M5Roster-aware game model
Forecasts a game from the players expected to play, on top of M3's ratings.
Tracked alongside the published forecast.
M6Player projections
Projects each player's rates for next season and the rest of this one, with an 80% interval.
Shown on the player pages.
M7Season simulator
Plays out the rest of a season many times to give each team's final place, playoff and title chances.
Shown on the Standings page.
The full write-up of the methods comes later; until then themodel cards are the record.